{"id":175,"date":"2008-12-08T23:08:25","date_gmt":"2008-12-09T06:08:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lookforwardconsulting.com\/wordpress\/?p=175"},"modified":"2026-04-23T09:10:56","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T08:10:56","slug":"agile-control-charts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thescrumacademy.com\/es\/2008\/12\/08\/agile-control-charts\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Make an Agile Control Charts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I stumbled across Agile Shrugged today and read a post on how the author experienced a lot of variation in their team velocity.\u00a0\u00a0 The author did not seem too concerned with all the \u201csawtooth\u201d behavior of velocity chart because they felt the velocity graph was a \u201cfairly accurate measure of our teams velocity\u201d.\u00a0 Let\u2019s see if this qualitative assessment matches up with <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Statistical_process_control\">statistical process control<\/a>, one of the Six Sigma tools.<\/p>\n<h2>THE USE OF CONTROL CHARTS<\/h2>\n<p>In Six Sigma, a common tool Green Belts and Black Belts use to monitor their processes are\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Control_chart\">control charts<\/a>.\u00a0 The control chart is an objective measurement tool to determine if the process under inspection can reliably produce what is expected of it in the future.\u00a0 By examining the patterns of the data on the control chart we can understand if the process is \u201cin control\u201d or \u201cout of control\u201d.\u00a0 If the process is \u201cout of control\u201d, then we need to inspect the process, discover the cause of the variation, \u201cmod\u201d the process and monitor the changes with\u2026a control chart.<\/p>\n<p>The diagram below is the velocity data from the team.\u00a0 You can see the \u201csawtooth\u201d, or oscillation, in velocity over the course of ten iterations.\u00a0 The team does seem to have improved their velocity over time, but we still have an order of magnitude difference in the completed output of the team from week-to-week.\u00a0 Is this significant?\u00a0 Should we care about the oscillation?<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload alignnone size-medium wp-image-270\" title=\"Velocity\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%27%20width%3D%27386%27%20height%3D%27233%27%20viewBox%3D%270%200%20386%20233%27%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%27386%27%20height%3D%27233%27%20fill-opacity%3D%220%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" data-orig-src=\"http:\/\/carltonnettleton.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/12\/velocity11.bmp\" alt=\"\" width=\"386\" height=\"233\" \/><\/p>\n<p>To make a control chart, we need to run some basic statistics on the data: compute the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Mean\">mean<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Standard_deviation\">standard deviation<\/a>\u00a0(\u03c3) and determine the upper and lower spec limits (mean \u00b1 3\u03c3).\u00a0 Here are the results for this data set:<\/p>\n<pre> mean: 6.6 ideal days    upper spec limit (USL): 24 ideal days\r\n \u03c3:    5.8 ideal days    lower spec limit (LSL): -10.8 ideal days<\/pre>\n<p>Next, we will plot the data on a control chart showing the mean (green line), the USL (red line), 1\u03c3 and 2\u03c3 (purple lines).\u00a0 I have eliminated the LSL because a negative velocity is meaningless.<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload alignnone size-medium wp-image-271\" title=\"velocity_controlchart\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%27%20width%3D%27386%27%20height%3D%27233%27%20viewBox%3D%270%200%20386%20233%27%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%27386%27%20height%3D%27233%27%20fill-opacity%3D%220%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" data-orig-src=\"http:\/\/carltonnettleton.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/12\/velocity_controlchart.bmp\" alt=\"\" width=\"386\" height=\"233\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>THE USE OF NELSON RULES<\/h3>\n<p>Now here is the interesting part: looking at the patterns.\u00a0 Using the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Nelson_rules\">Nelson Rules<\/a>, we can examine the patterns in the control chart to see if the process is \u201cin control\u201d or \u201cout of control\u201d.\u00a0 Here are the rules that I think are relevant for this chart (please review all the rules if you are interested in learning more):<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>One point is more than 3 standard deviations from the mean.\u00a0<em>Nope<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Fourteen (or more) points in a row alternate in direction, increasing then decreasing.\u00a0<em>Only 8 points so far; maybe something to watch out for.<\/em><\/li>\n<li>Four (or five) out of five points in a row are more than 1 standard deviation from the mean in the same direction.\u00a0\u00a0<em>Only 2 out of 5 data points.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>What do we find by creating and examining the control chart?\u00a0 Statistical confirmation that our qualitative opinion that our planning process is indeed fine.\u00a0 Great!\u00a0 Keep up the good work!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I stumbled across Agile Shrugged today and read a post on how the author experienced a lot of variation in their team velocity.\u00a0\u00a0 The author did not seem too concerned  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7850,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[208,90,7,32,82,22,19,20,209,206,214,210,44,5,8,218],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-advanced-practitioners","category-agile-metrics","category-agile-scrum","category-agile-transformation","category-burndown-charts","category-coaching","category-design-excellence","category-design-for-six-sigma","category-leaders","category-practitioners","category-scrum-artifacts","category-scrum-framework","category-scrum-master","category-scrum-methodology","category-scrum-tools","category-scrum-velocity"],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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